• ADP & the U.S. Trade Deficit

    Big miss in ADP report.   The April ADP report showed payrolls grew by 169K vs. 200K estimate.  The March report was also revised lower from 189K to 175K.   The collapse of oil prices and the strength of the dollar certainly have weighed heavily on the energy and manufacturing sectors.  The question is will we see a rebound with oil recovering to over $60 a barrel.

    Tomorrow weekly initial jobless claims will be the next piece of the U.S’s employment picture before Fridays non farm payroll number from the BLS.

    ***

    The U.S. March Trade deficit widened even more than the estimate of $35.4bn to $41.7bn. The $51.4bn deficit is the largest gap since October of 2008.  Economist expected this number to expand  but not 43% higher than the February imbalance.  This number will likely further shrink the  anemic first quarter U.S. GDP.

  • Mixed Market Large Cap Stocks Fall and Small Cap Stocks Rally



    DOW 17,959.03  -117.16 points or  -0.65%
    S&P 500  2,089.27  -10.23 points  -0.49%

    NASDAQ  4,992.38  +9.55 points or  +0.19%

    Russell 2000  1,254.86  +2.72 points or  +0.22%

       

    The S&P and the Dow opened lower, and closed down near the lows of the day. The smaller cap NASDAQ and Russell indexes opened higher, and rallied closing up on the day. The volatility index, the VIX, faded the large cap Stock Market sell off, moving only slightly higher up 0.22 percent to close at 14.07. The 10 Year Treasury bond yield closed around the 1.98 percent level. Trading volume saw about 6.6 billion shares changing hands across all trading venues, according to BATS exchange data. 

     

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.


    March 16

    8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing report for March was 6.9. The Market was expecting 8.8. The prior reported figure was 7.8. 

    9:15 AM Industrial Production report for February was 0.1 percent. The Market was expecting 0.3 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 0.2 percent to down -0.3 percent. 

    9:15 AM Capacity Utilization report from February was 78.9 percent. The Market was expecting 79.5 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 79.4 percent to 79.1 percent. 

    10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index report for March was 53. The Market was expecting 56. The prior reported figure was 55. 

    4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for January was -$27.2B. The prior reported figure was revised from $35.4B to $39.2B.


    March 17

    8:30 AM Building permits report for February was 1092K. The Market was expecting 1070K. The prior reported figure was revised from 1053K to 1060K. 

    8:30 AM Housing Starts report for February was 897K.The Market was expecting 1041K. The prior reported figure was revised from 1065K to 1081K. 


    March 18

    7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index report for March 14 was down -3.9 percent. The prior reported figure was down -1.3 percent. 

    10:30 AM Crude Inventories report for March 14

    2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision report for March was 0.25 percent. That was exactly in line with Market expectations. The prior Rate Decision was also 0.25 percent. 


    March 19

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7

    8:30 AM Initial Claims report for March 14 was 291K. The Market was expecting 293K. The prior reorted figure was revised from 289K to 290K. 

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7 was 2417K. The Market was expecting 2415K. The prior reported figure was revised from 2418K to 2428K.

    8:30 AM Current Account Balance report for Quarter 4 was -$113.5B. The Market was expecting -$105.0B. The prior reported figure was revised from -$100.3B to -$98.9B. 

    10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed report for March was 5.0. The Market was expecting 6.9. The prior reported figure was 5.2.

    10:00 AM Leading Indicators report for February was 0.2 percent. That was exactly in line with the Market expectations. The prior reported figure was also 0.2 percent.

    10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories report for March 14 was -45 bcf. The prior reported figure was -198 bcf.

  • Market Pulls Back Before Fed Statement



    DOW 17,849.08  -128.34 points or  -0.71%
    S&P 500  2,074.28  -6.91 points  -0.33%

    NASDAQ  4,937.43  +7.93 points or  +0.16%

    Russell 2000  1,242.23  +2.45 points or  +0.20%

     

    The Stock Market pulled back before the Federal Reserves Policy statement tomorrow.  

    The Market opened lower, and remained lower throughout the day closing down yet off the session low. 

    Crude Oil continued to march to the inevitable $35 per barrel level, closing down below $43 per barrel today. 

    The volatility index, the VIX, faded the Stock Market selloff, moving only slightly higher up 0.32 percent to close at 15.66. The 10 Year Treasury bond yield dropped slightly, down to the 2.06 percent level. Trading volume saw about 6.2 billion shares changing hands across all trading venues, according to BATS exchange data. 

     

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.


    March 16

    8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing report for March was 6.9. The Market was expecting 8.8. The prior reported figure was 7.8. 

    9:15 AM Industrial Production report for February was 0.1 percent. The Market was expecting 0.3 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 0.2 percent to down -0.3 percent. 

    9:15 AM Capacity Utilization report from February was 78.9 percent. The Market was expecting 79.5 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 79.4 percent to 79.1 percent. 

    10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index report for March was 53. The Market was expecting 56. The prior reported figure was 55. 

    4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for January was -$27.2B. The prior reported figure was revised from $35.4B to $39.2B.


    March 17

    8:30 AM Building permits report for February was 1092K. The Market was expecting 1070K. The prior reported figure was revised from 1053K to 1060K. 

    8:30 AM Housing Starts report for February was 897K.The Market was expecting 1041K. The prior reported figure was revised from 1065K to 1081K. 


    March 18

    7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index report for March 14

    10:30 AM Crude Inventories report for March 14

    2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision report for March


    March 19

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7

    8:30 AM Initial Claims report for March 14

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7

    8:30 AM Current Account Balance report for Quarter 4

    10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed report for March

    10:00 AM Leading Indicators report for February

    10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories report for March 14

  • Stock Market Begins the Week With a Strong Rally



    DOW 17,977.42  +228.11 points or  +1.29%
    S&P 500  2,081.19  +27.79 points  +1.35%

    NASDAQ  4,929.51  +57.75 points or  +1.19%

    Russell 2000  1,239.78  +7.64 points or  +0.62%

     

    The Stock Market  began the week with a broad strong rally.  The Market opened higher, and slowly crept upward for the entire day, closing near the days high. Crude Oil made a strong move away from the $50 per barrel level, dropping again, closing down near the $44 per barrel level. $35 per barrel appears to be the next target level for Crude Oil.  The volatility index, the VIX, dissed last weeks sell off and today, the index sold off, dropping -2.44 percent to close down at 15.61. The 10 Year Treasury bond yield dipped slightly, down to the 2.10 percent level. Trading volume saw about 6.3 billion shares changing hands across all trading venues, according to BATS exchange data. 

     

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.


    March 16

    8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing report for March was 6.9. The Market was expecting 8.8. The prior reported figure was 7.8. 

    9:15 AM Industrial Production report for February was 0.1 percent. The Market was expecting 0.3 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 0.2 percent to down -0.3 percent. 

    9:15 AM Capacity Utilization report from February was 78.9 percent. The Market was expecting 79.5 percent. The prior reported figure was revised from 79.4 percent to 79.1 percent. 

    10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index report for March was 53. The Market was expecting 56. The prior reported figure was 55. 

    4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows report for January was -$27.2B. The prior reported figure was revised from $35.4B to $39.2B.


    March 17

    8:30 AM Building permits report for February

    8:30 AM Housing Starts report for February

    8:30 AM Building Permits report for February 


    March 18

    7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index report for March 14

    10:30 AM Crude Inventories report for March 14

    2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision report for March


    March 19

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7

    8:30 AM Initial Claims report for March 14

    8:30 AM Continuing Claims report for March 7

    8:30 AM Current Account Balance report for Quarter 4

    10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed report for March

    10:00 AM Leading Indicators report for February

    10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories report for March 14