Archive for November, 2013

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street New Highs and S&P 500 Breaks 1,800






    DOW  16,064.77  +54.78 points or +0.34%
    S&P    1,804.76  +8.91 points or +0.50%
    NASDAQ 3,991.65  +22.49 points or +0.57%

    Wall Street continued marching to new highs with the S&P 500 index closing above the 1,800 mark. The DOW was up +54.78 points or up +0.34 percent to close up at a new all time high close of 16,064.77 for the week. The S&P 500 index climbed +8.91 points or up +0.50 percent to close up at all time highs above the magical 1,800 mark to close at 1,804.76 for the week. The NASDAQ index jumped up +22.49 points or up +0.57 percent to close up at 3,991.65 for the week. 
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.

    November 18
    9:00 am Net Long term TIC Flows report for Sept was $25.5B. The revised prior reported number was -$8.9B.
    10:00 am NAHB Housing Market Index report for November was 54. The Street was looking for 55. The revised prior reported number was also 55.

    November 19
    8:30 am Employment Cost Index report for Q3 was 0.4 percent. The street was looking for 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.5 percent. 

    November 20
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Index report for November 16 was down – 2.3 percent. The prior report was down – 1.8 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales report for October was up 0.4 percent. That was a bit better than thee forecasted report of 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was -0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales ex auto report for October was up 0.2 percent. The street was expecting 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.4 percent. 
    8:30 am CPI report for October was down -0.1 percent. The street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent. 
    8:30 am Core CPI report for October was up 0.1 percent. The street was expecting 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent.
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales report for October was 5.12M. The street was expecting 5.2M. The prior reported number was 5.29M.
    10:00 am Business Inventories report for September was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was looking for 0.4 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.3 percent.
    10:30 am Crude Inventories report for November 16 was 0.375M. The prior reported number was 2.64M.
    2:00 pm FOMC Minutes release revealed that Fed members may be seeking to initiate tapering in the coming months.

    November 21
    8:30 am Initial Claims report for November 09 was 2876k. The market was looking for 2863k. The revised prior reported number was 2874k.
    8:30 am Continuing Claims report for November 16 was 323k. The market was looking for 333k. The revised prior reported number was 339k. 
    8:30 am PPI report for October was -0.2 percent. That was exactly in line with Wall Street s expected number. Te prior reported number was -0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Core PPI report for October was 0.2 percent. The market was expecting 0.1 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent.
    10:00 am Philadelphia Fed report for November was 6.5. Wall Street was looking for 11.9. The prior reported number was 19.8.
    10:00 am Leading Indicators report for October were flat. The prior reported number was 0.7 percent. 
    10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories report for November 16 was -45bcf. The prior reported number was 20bcf.

  • Warren Sulmasy DOW Closes Above the 16,000 New High Mark




    DOW  16,009.99  +109.17 points or +0.69%
    S&P    1,795.85  +14.48 points or +0.81%
    NASDAQ 3,969.15  +47.88 points or +1.22%

    Yesterday, the market sold off after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the October meeting indicating that tapering may begin sooner than later. Today, with that knowledge, and a jobless claim economic release that was better than expected, the bull market resumed as the market rallied back up to new highs. The market put more emphasis on the improving economy than the potential downside from tapering. The DOW was up +109.17 or up +0.69 percent to close up at a new record high of 16,009.99 for the day. The S&P 500 index ran up +14.48 points or up +0.81 percent to close up at the new high of 1,795.85 for the day. The NASDAQ index was up +47.88 points or up +1.22 percent to close up at 3,969.15 for the day.  

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.

    November 18
    9:00 am Net Long term TIC Flows report for Sept was $25.5B. The revised prior reported number was -$8.9B.
    10:00 am NAHB Housing Market Index report for November was 54. The Street was looking for 55. The revised prior reported number was also 55.

    November 19
    8:30 am Employment Cost Index report for Q3 was 0.4 percent. The street was looking for 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.5 percent. 

    November 20
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Index report for November 16 was down – 2.3 percent. The prior report was down – 1.8 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales report for October was up 0.4 percent. That was a bit better than thee forecasted report of 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was -0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales ex auto report for October was up 0.2 percent. The street was expecting 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.4 percent. 
    8:30 am CPI report for October was down -0.1 percent. The street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent. 
    8:30 am Core CPI report for October was up 0.1 percent. The street was expecting 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent.
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales report for October was 5.12M. The street was expecting 5.2M. The prior reported number was 5.29M.
    10:00 am Business Inventories report for September was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was looking for 0.4 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.3 percent.
    10:30 am Crude Inventories report for November 16 was 0.375M. The prior reported number was 2.64M.
    2:00 pm FOMC Minutes release revealed that Fed members may be seeking to initiate tapering in the coming months.

    November 21
    8:30 am Initial Claims report for November 09 was 2876k. The market was looking for 2863k. The revised prior reported number was 2874k.
    8:30 am Continuing Claims report for November 16 was 323k. The market was looking for 333k. The revised prior reported number was 339k. 
    8:30 am PPI report for October was -0.2 percent. That was exactly in line with Wall Street s expected number. Te prior reported number was -0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Core PPI report for October was 0.2 percent. The market was expecting 0.1 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent.
    10:00 am Philadelphia Fed report for November was 6.5. Wall Street was looking for 11.9. The prior reported number was 19.8.
    10:00 am Leading Indicators report for October were flat. The prior reported number was 0.7 percent. 
    10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories report for November 16 was -45bcf. The prior reported number was 20bcf.

    November 22
    10:00 am JOLTS-Job Openings

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Sells off on Fed Minutes Release




    DOW  15,900.82  -66.21 points or -0.41%
    S&P    1,781.37  -6.50 points or -0.36%
    NASDAQ 3,921.27  -10.28 points or -0.26%

    After trading in positive territory most of the day, the market sold off in the afternoon after minutes from Federal Reserves  October meeting were released. The minutes indicated that the central bank may begin tapering the current QE bond buying stimulus program at one of the upcoming Fed policy meetings over the next few months. The DOW sold off -66.21 points or down -0.41 percent to close down at 15,900.82 for the day. The S&P 500 equity index lost -6.50 points or down -0.36 percent to close down at 1,781.37 for the day. The NASDAQ index slipped -10.28 points or down -0.26 percent to close down at 3,921.27 for the day. 


    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.

    November 18
    9:00 am Net Long term TIC Flows report for Sept was $25.5B. The revised prior reported number was -$8.9B.
    10:00 am NAHB Housing Market Index report for November was 54. The Street was looking for 55. The revised prior reported number was also 55.

    November 19
    8:30 am Employment Cost Index report for Q3 was 0.4 percent. The street was looking for 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.5 percent. 

    November 20
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Index report for November 16 was down – 2.3 percent. The prior report was down – 1.8 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales report for October was up 0.4 percent. That was a bit better than thee forecasted report of 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was -0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales ex auto report for October was up 0.2 percent. The street was expecting 0.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.4 percent. 
    8:30 am CPI report for October was down -0.1 percent. The street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent. 
    8:30 am Core CPI report for October was up 0.1 percent. The street was expecting 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent.
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales report for October was 5.12M. The street was expecting 5.2M. The prior reported number was 5.29M.
    10:00 am Business Inventories report for September was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was looking for 0.4 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.3 percent.
    10:30 am Crude Inventories report for November 16 was 0.375M. The prior reported number was 2.64M.
    2:00 pm FOMC Minutes release revealed that Fed members may be seeking to initiate tapering in the coming months.

    November 21
    8:30 am Initial Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:30 am PPI
    8:30 am Core PPI
    10:00 am Philadelphia Fed
    10:00 am Leading Indicators
    10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories

    November 22
    10:00 am JOLTS-Job Openings

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Trades Slightly Lower

    DOW  15,967.03  -8.99 points or -0.06%
    S&P    1,787.87  -3.66 points or -0.20%
    NASDAQ 3,931.55  -17.51 points or -0.44%

    Wall Street was slightly lower today. Keep in mind, the market is just below the all time high closing prices. The DOW was off -8.99 points or down -0.06 percent to close lower at 15,967.03 for the day. The S&P 500 equity index slipped -3.66 points or down -0.20 percent to close down at 1,787.87 for the day. The NASDAQ index was down -17.51 points or down -0.44 percent to close down at 3,931.55 for the day. 
    Current Federal Reserve Chairperson Ben Bernanke appeared to be assisting his soon to be replacement person, Janet Yellen, when he spoke at the National Economists Club today. Bernanke echoed Yellens latest comments on the status of the Fed cutting the current easy stimulus money back when he said we will continue the current QE stimulus policies for as long as they are needed. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.

    November 18
    9:00 am Net Long term TIC Flows report for Sept was $25.5B. The revised prior reported number was -$8.9B.
    10:00 am NAHB Housing Market Index report for November was 54. The Street was looking for 55. The revised prior reported number was also 55.

    November 19
    8:30 am Employment Cost Index report for Q3 was 0.4 percent. The street was looking for 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.5 percent. 

    November 20
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Index
    8:30 am Retail Sales
    8:30 am Retail Sales ex auto
    8:30 am CPI
    8:30 am Core CPI
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales
    10:00 am Business Inventories
    10:30 am Crude Inventories
    2:00 pm FOMC Minutes

    November 21
    8:30 am Initial Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:30 am PPI
    8:30 am Core PPI
    10:00 am Philadelphia Fed
    10:00 am Leading Indicators
    10:30 am Natural Gas Inventories

    November 22
    10:00 am JOLTS-Job Openings