Archive for October, 2013

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Rally Ends on Fed Statements




    DOW  15,618.76  -61.59 points or -0.39%
    S&P    1,763.31  -8.64 points or -0.49%
    NASDAQ 3,930.62  -21.72 points or -0.55%

    The Wall Street rally was stopped today when the Federal Reserve statements on the current QE policy were not as dovish as some had hoped. The Fed statement did not contain any surprises, however, it actually omitted some dovish language that had been previously used. The Fed did state that the current QE bond buying program of purchasing $85 billion in securities per month, that’s $1 trillion per year, would continue as is. Most had had expected this outcome. The recent market rally was predicated upon this outcome.   The DOW gave back -61.59 points or down -0.39 percent to close down at 15,618.76. The S&P 500 index slipped -8.64 points or down -0.49 percent to close down at 1,763.31 for the day. The NASDAQ index lost -21.72 points or down -0.55 percent to close down at 3,930.62 for the day. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below. 

    October 28
    9:15 am Industrial Production MoM
    The October Production Month over Month report for Sept was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was expecting 0.4 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.4 percent.
    9:15 am Capacity Utilization 
    The Capacity Utilization report for Sept was 78.3 percent. That was in line with Wall Streets expected number of 78.0 percent. The revised prior reported number was 77.9 percent. 
    9:15 am Manufacturing (SIC) Production 
    The Manufacturing (SIC) Production report for Sept was 0.1 percent. The Street was looking for 0.3 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.5 percent. 
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for Sept was down -5.6 percent. The Street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was down – 1.6 percent.
    10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for Sept was 1.1 percent. Wall Street was looking for 3.6 percent. The revised prior reported number was 2.8 percent. 
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity 
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for Oct was 3.6 percent. That was lower than Wall Streets expected report of 10.0 percent. The prior reported number was 12.8 percent. 
    October 29
    8:30 am PPI MoM
    The PPI Month over Month report for Sept was down -0.1 percent. The Street was looking for a 0.2 percent increase. The prior reported number was 0.3 percent. 
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    The PPI Ex Food and Energy Month over Month report for Sept was up 0.1 percent. That was exactly in line with the streets expected number. The prior months report was flat.
    8:30 am PPI YoY
    The PPI Year over Year report for Sept was up 0.3 percent. Wall Street was looking for a rise of 0.6 percent. The prior reported number was 1.4 percent. 
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
    The PPI Ex Food and Energy Year over Year report for Sept was exactly in line with the expected number, up 1.2 percent. The prior months reported number was up 1.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Advance MoM
    The Retail Sales Advance Month over Month report for Sept down -0.1 percent. The expected number was flat. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
    The Retail Sales Ex Auto Month over Month report for Sept was exactly in line with the expected number of 0.4 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
    The Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas report for Sept was 0.4 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Control Group
    The Retail Sales Control Group report for Sept was 0.5 percent. The expected number was 0.4 percent.  The prior reported number was 0.2 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CS 20 City Month over Month SA for August was 0.93 percent. The expected number was 0.65 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.60 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for August was 12.82 percent. The Street was looking for 12.50 percent. The revised prior reported number was 12.31 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index report for August was 164.53. The revised prior reported number was 162.39.
    10:00 am Business Inventories 
    The Business Inventories report for August was exactly in line with Wall Street expected number of 0.3 percent. The prior reported number was 0.3 percent. 
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for October was 71.2 percent. Wall Street was looking for 75.0 percent.  The revised prior reported number was 80.2 percent. 

    October 30
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for Oct 25 was 6.4 percent. The prior report was -0.6 percent. 
    8:15 am ADP Employment Change
    The ADP Employment Change for Oct was 130k. Wall Street was expecting 150k. The revised prior reported number was 145k.
    8:30 am CPI MoM
    The CPI Month over Month report for Sept was exactly in line with the streets expected number of 0.2 percent. The prior reported umber was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    The CPI Ex Food and Energy Month over Month report for Sept was 0.1 percent. The street was expecting 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am CPI Core Index SA
    The CPI Core Index SA for Sept 234.589. The expected number was 234.700. The prior reported number was 234.302. 
    8:30 am CPI Index NSA
    The CPI Index NSA report for Sept was 234.149.  The expected number was 234.086. The prior reported number was 233.877.
    2:00 pm FOMC Rate Decision
    The FOMC Rate Decision was to leave the rates at 0.25 percent.
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
    The Fed Pace of MBS Purchases for Oct was left unchanged at $40B per month.
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases
    The Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases was left unchanged at $45B per month.
    4:30 pm Monthly Budget Statement
    The Monthly Budget Statement for Sept was $75.1B. That was higher than the expected figure of $69B. The prior reported figure was $75.2B.

    October 31
    7:30 am RBC Consumer Outlook Index
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager

    November 1
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Final
    10:00 am ISM Manufacturing 
    10:00 am ISM Prices Paid
    5:00 pm Total Vehicle Sales
    5:00 pm Domestic Vehicle Sales

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Runs Up to New Highs



    DOW  15,680.35  +111.42 points or +0.72%
    S&P    1,771.95  +9.84 points or +0.56%
    NASDAQ 3,952.34  +12.21 points or +0.31%

    Wall Street ran up to new all time highs on the DOW and the S&P 500.  The DOW ran up +111.42 points or up +0.72 percent to close up at the new high of 15,680.35.  The S&P 500 equity index was up +9.84 points or up +0.56 percent to close up at the new all time high of 1,771.95. The NASDAQ index rose up +12.21 points or up +0.31 percent to close up at 3,952.34.  
    Wall Street rallied to new highs again today anticipating that the Federal Reserve will vote to maintain the current easy money QE policy in tact at the two day policy meeting that ends tomorrow afternoon. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below. 

    October 28
    9:15 am Industrial Production MoM
    The October Production Month over Month report for Sept was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was expecting 0.4 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.4 percent.
    9:15 am Capacity Utilization 
    The Capacity Utilization report for Sept was 78.3 percent. That was in line with Wall Streets expected number of 78.0 percent. The revised prior reported number was 77.9 percent. 
    9:15 am Manufacturing (SIC) Production 
    The Manufacturing (SIC) Production report for Sept was 0.1 percent. The Street was looking for 0.3 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.5 percent. 
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for Sept was down -5.6 percent. The Street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was down – 1.6 percent.
    10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for Sept was 1.1 percent. Wall Street was looking for 3.6 percent. The revised prior reported number was 2.8 percent. 
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity 
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for Oct was 3.6 percent. That was lower than Wall Streets expected report of 10.0 percent. The prior reported number was 12.8 percent. 
    October 29
    8:30 am PPI MoM
    The PPI Month over Month report for Sept was down -0.1 percent. The Street was looking for a 0.2 percent increase. The prior reported number was 0.3 percent. 
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    The PPI Ex Food and Energy Month over Month report for Sept was up 0.1 percent. That was exactly in line with the streets expected number. The prior months report was flat.
    8:30 am PPI YoY
    The PPI Year over Year report for Sept was up 0.3 percent. Wall Street was looking for a rise of 0.6 percent. The prior reported number was 1.4 percent. 
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
    The PPI Ex Food and Energy Year over Year report for Sept was exactly in line with the expected number, up 1.2 percent. The prior months reported number was up 1.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Advance MoM
    The Retail Sales Advance Month over Month report for Sept down -0.1 percent. The expected number was flat. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent.
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
    The Retail Sales Ex Auto Month over Month report for Sept was exactly in line with the expected number of 0.4 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
    The Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas report for Sept was 0.4 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The prior reported number was 0.1 percent. 
    8:30 am Retail Sales Control Group
    The Retail Sales Control Group report for Sept was 0.5 percent. The expected number was 0.4 percent.  The prior reported number was 0.2 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CS 20 City Month over Month SA for August was 0.93 percent. The expected number was 0.65 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.60 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for August was 12.82 percent. The Street was looking for 12.50 percent. The revised prior reported number was 12.31 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index report for August was 164.53. The revised prior reported number was 162.39.
    10:00 am Business Inventories 
    The Business Inventories report for August was exactly in line with Wall Street expected number of 0.3 percent. The prior reported number was 0.3 percent. 
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for October was 71.2 percent. Wall Street was looking for 75.0 percent.  The revised prior reported number was 80.2 percent. 

    October 30
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:15 am ADP Employment Change
    8:30 am CPI MoM
    8:30 am CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    8:30 am CPI Core Index SA
    8:30 am CPI Index NSA
    2:00 pm FOMC Rate Decision
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases
    Monthly Budget Statement

    October 31
    7:30 am RBC Consumer Outlook Index
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager

    November 1
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Final
    10:00 am ISM Manufacturing 
    10:00 am ISM Prices Paid
    5:00 pm Total Vehicle Sales
    5:00 pm Domestic Vehicle Sales

  • Warren Sulmasy S&P 500 Reaches New Highs


    Stock Market Electronic Board Blue Royalty Free Stock Images - Image: 18277609

    DOW  15,568.93  -1.35 points or -0.01%
    S&P    1,762.11  +2.34 points or +0.13%
    NASDAQ 3,940.13  -3.23 points or -0.08%

    Wall Street was basically flat today. The S&P 500 equity index did manage to barely sneak in a new  high in the flat market. The DOW was flat, shaving off a hair down -1.35 points or down -0.01 percent to close at 15,568.93 for the day. The S&P 500 equity index, was up ever so slightly, up +2.34 points or up +0.13 percent to close 1,762.11 for the day. The NASDAQ index was flat losing a hair down -3.23 points or down -0.08 percent to close down at 3,940.13 for the day.  
    After bottoming out on October 9th, the market has run straight up, barely pausing to breathe on the heals of the Fed continuing the easy money policies. This week the Federal Reserve meets to debate and decide whether to change the current QE policy and rate policy or to leave the policies in tact for now. Wall Street is betting that the Fed will leave the current policies as is for the foreseeable future. Many highly regarded Wall Street analysts are now predicting that the Feds current QE policies will stay in place at least until the third quarter of 2014. If the Feds policy does in fact remain the same, then the rally that began on Oct 9th, will continue. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below. 

    October 28
    9:15 am Industrial Production MoM
    The October Production Month over Month report for Sept was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was expecting 0.4 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.4 percent.
    9:15 am Capacity Utilization 
    The Capacity Utilization report for Sept was 78.3 percent. That was in line with Wall Streets expected number of 78.0 percent. The revised prior reported number was 77.9 percent. 
    9:15 am Manufacturing (SIC) Production 
    The Manufacturing (SIC) Production report for Sept was 0.1 percent. The Street was looking for 0.3 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.5 percent. 
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for Sept was down -5.6 percent. The Street was looking for a flat number. The prior reported number was down – 1.6 percent.
    10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for Sept was 1.1 percent. Wall Street was looking for 3.6 percent. The revised prior reported number was 2.8 percent. 
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity 
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for Oct was 3.6 percent. That was lower than Wall Streets expected report of 10.0 percent. The prior reported number was 12.8 percent. 
    October 29
    8:30 am PPI MoM
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    8:30 am PPI YoY
    8:30 am PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
    8:30 am Retail Sales Advance MoM
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
    8:30 am Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas YoY
    8:30 am Retail Sales Control Group
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    9:00 am S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index
    10:00 am Business Inventories 
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index

    October 30
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:15 am ADP Employment Change
    8:30 am CPI MoM
    8:30 am CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
    8:30 am CPI Core Index SA
    8:30 am CPI Index NSA
    2:00 pm FOMC Rate Decision
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of MBS Purchases
    2:00 pm Fed Pace of Treasury Purchases
    Monthly Budget Statement

    October 31
    7:30 am RBC Consumer Outlook Index
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager

    November 1
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Final
    10:00 am ISM Manufacturing 
    10:00 am ISM Prices Paid
    5:00 pm Total Vehicle Sales
    5:00 pm Domestic Vehicle Sales





  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Ends the Week on a High Note




    DOW  15,570.28  +61.07 points or +0.39%
    S&P    1,759.77  +7.70 points or +0.44%
    NASDAQ 3,943.36  +14.40 points or +0.37%

    Wall Street ended the week on a high note as the markets rallied once again. The DOW ran up +61.07 points or up +0.39 percent to close up at 15,570.28 for the week. The S&P 500 equity index was up +7.70 points or up +0.44 percent to close up at 1,759.77 for the week. The NASDAQ index rallied +14.40 points or up +0.37 percent to close up at 3,943.36 for the week. 
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week
    are listed below. Many Government economic reports that were postponed due to the US Government shutdown, are scheduled to report this week. 

    October 21
    8:30 am Existing Home Sales
    The Existing Home Sales report for Sept was 5.29M. That was in line with Wall Streets expected number of 5.30M. The prior revised report was up 5.39M. 
    8:30 am Existing Home Sales
    The Existing Home Sales report Month over Month for Sept were down -1.9 percent. That was better than Wall Streets expected number of -3.3 percent. The prior revised number was 0 or flat. 
    October 18 releases delayed to October 25
    Construction Spending MoM
    The Construction Spending Month over Month report for August was was up 0.6 percent. Wall Street was looking for 0.4 percent. The August report was below the revised prior reported number of 1.4 percent. 
    Change in Private Payrolls
    The Change in Private Payrolls for September was 126,000. The Street was looking for 180,000. The prior revised report was 193,000.
    Change in Nonfarm Payroll
    The Change in Nonfarm Payrolls for September was 148,000. That was below the Streets expected number of 180,000. The prior revised number was 193,000. 
    Two-month Payroll Net Revision
    The Two Month Payroll Net revision for Sept was 9,000.
     Change in Manufacturing Payrolls 
    The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls report for Sept 2,000. The Street was expecting 5,000. The prior revised report was 13,000. 
     Unemployment Rate
    The Unemployment Rate report for Sept was 7.2 percent. That was a bit better than the Streets estimated number of 7.3 percent. The prior reported number was 7.3 percent.
     Average Hourly Earnings MoM
    The Average Hourly Earnings Month over Month for Sept 0.1 percent. The street was looking for 0.2 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0,3 percent.
     Average Hourly Earnings YoY
    The Average Hourly Earnings Year over Year report for Sept was exactly in line with the expected number of 2.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was 2.3 percent.
     Average Weekly Hours All Employees
    The Average Weekly Hours All Employees report for Sept was 34..5 percent. That was exactly in line with the streets expectations as well as the prior reported number.
    Change in Household Employment
    The Change in Household Employment report for Sept 133. The prior reported number was -115. 
     Underemployment Rate
    The Underemployment Rate report for Sept was 13.6 percent. The prior reported number was 13.7 percent. 
     Labor Force Participation Rate
    The Labor Force Participation Rate for Sept was 63.2 percent. The prior reported number was also 63.2 percent.
    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October was 1. The street was looking for 0.

    October 23
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for Oct 18 was down -0.6 percent. The prior reported number was up 0.3 percent.
    8:30 am Import Price Index MoM
    The Import Price Index Month over Month report for Sept was 0.2 percent. That was exactly in line with Wall Streets expected number. The revised prior reported number was also up 0.2 percent.
    8:30 am  Import Price Index YoY
    The Import Price Index Year over Year for Sept was down -1.0 percent. That was exactly in line with Wall Streets expected number. The revised prior  months number was down -0.2 percent. 
    9:00 am House Price Index MoM
    The House Price Index Month over Month for August was up 0.3 percent. That was lower than the Streets estimated number of 0.8 percent. The revised prior reported number was also down -0.2 percent. 

    October 24
    8:30 am Trade Balance 
    The Trade Balance report for August was -$38.8B. The expected number was -$39.4B. The revised prior reported number was -$38.6B.
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    The Initial Jobless Claims report for Oct 19 was 350k. The expected number was 340k. The revised prior reported number was 362k. 
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    The Continuing Claims report for Oct 12 was 2874k. That was in line with Wall Streets expected number of 2870k. The revised prior reported number was 2882k.
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Preliminary
    The Markit US PMI Preliminary report Oct was 51.1. Wall Street was expecting 52.5. The prior reported number was 52.8.
    10:00 am JOLTs Job Openings
    The JOLTs Job Openings report for August was 3883. Wall Street was expecting 3765. The revised prior reported number was 3808.
    11:00 am Kansas City Fed Manf Activity
    The Kansas City Fed Manf Activity report Oct was 6. The street was expecting 2. the prior reported number was 2.

    October 25
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders report for Sept was up 3.7 percent. That beat the expected number of 2.3 percent.  The revised prior reported number was up a mere 0.2 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for Sept was down -0.1 percent. The Street was expecting 0.5 percent. The revised prior reported number was -0.4 percent. 
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air for Sept was down -1.1 percent. Wall Street was looking for 1.0 percent. The prior revised reported number was 0.4 percent. 
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for Sept was down -0.2 percent. That was below Wall Streets expected number of 1.1 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.1 percent. 
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence
    The University of Michigan Confidence report for Oct was 73.2. That was slightly below Wall Streets expected number of 75.0. The prior reported number was 75.2.
    10:00 am Wholesale Inventories MoM
    The Wholesale Inventories Month over Month report for Aug was up 0.5 percent. That was basically in line with the expected number of 0.3 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.2 percent. 
    10:00 am Wholesale Trade Sales MoM
    The Wholesale Trade Sales Month over Month report for Aug was up 0.6 percent. The street was looking for 0.3 percent. The prior reported number was flat.


    Industrial Production MoM
    CPI MoM
    CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
    CPI YoY
    Wholesale Inventories MoM
     Wholesale Inventories MoM
     Wholesale Trade Inventories MoM
     Monthly Budget Statement
    PPI MoM
     PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
     PPI YoY
     PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
    Retail Sales Advance MoM
     Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
     Retail Sales Control Group
    Factory Orders
    Trade Balance
     Business Inventories
    Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index