Archive for August, 2013

  • The S&P 500 Equity Index Ends August Down Yielding Worst Performance Month Since May 2012

    DOW 14,810.31 -30.64 points -0.21%
    S&P 1,632.97  -5.20 points -0.32%
    NASDAQ 3,589.87 -30.44 points -0.84%

    The Markets two day rebound ended abruptly today with the S&P 500 equity index ending the month of August down yielding the indexes worst monthly performance since May 2012 . The DOW lost -30.64 points or down – 0.21 percent to close at 14,810.31 for the week. The S&P 500 index dropped -5.20 points or down – 0.32 percent to close down at 1,6322.97 for the week.  The NASDAQ index experienced the largest loss for the day down -30.44 points or down -0.84 percent to close down at 3,589.87 for the week..

    On the economic calendar, the inflation data confirmed that inflation continues to stay in check for now.  

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week
    are listed below.

    August 26
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders report for July was worse than expected dropping -7.3 percent. The expected number was -4.0 percent. The July report was also a big drop from the revised prior reported number of 3.9 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for July was disappointing down -0.6 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air report for July came below expectations down -3.3 percent. The expected number was up 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for July came in below expectations down – 1.5 percent. The expected number was up 0.3 percent. The July report was lower than the revised prior reported number of -0.8 percent.
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for August was positive with 5.0. The Expected number was 4.0. The August report was essentially unchanged form the prior reported number of 4.4.

    August 27
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CSS City Month over Month SA report for June was basically in line with expectations with 0.89 percent. The expected number was 1.00 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.04 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for June was in line with expectations with 12.07 percent. The expected number was 12.10 percent. The prior reported number was 12.20 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for June came in line with the streets expectations with 159.54. The expected number 159.30. The revised prior reported number was 156.18. 
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Year over Year report Q2 was 10.08 percent. The revised prior reported number was 10.10 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Q2 for Q2 was 146.32. The revised prior reported number was 136.59.
    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for August was 14. The prior reported number was -11.
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for August was 81.5. The expected number was 79.0. The revised prior reported number was 81.

    August 28
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for August 23 was down -2.5 percent. The prior reported number was down -4.6 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for July was down -1.3 percent. The street was looking for a flat report. The prior reported number was off -0.4 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for July came up 7.9 percent. That was less than the streets expected number of up 8.6 percent. The July report was lower than the prior reported number of 9.1 percent.

    August 29
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    The Initial Jobless Claims report for August 24 was in line with expectations with 331,000. The expected number was 332,000. The revised prior reported number was 337,000. 
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    The Continuing Claims report for August 17 was almost exactly in line with expectations with 2,989,000. The expected number was 2,988,000. The revised prior reported number was 3,003,000. 
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    The GDP Annualized Quarter over Quarter report for Q2 was a bit better than expected with 2.5 percent. The expected number was 2.2 percent. The prior reported number was 1.7 percent. 
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    The Personal Consumption report for Q2 was in line with expectations with 1.8 percent. The expected number was 1.7 percent. The prior reported number was 1.8 percent. 
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    The GDP Price Index for Q2 for Q2 was 0.8 percent. That was in line with the expected number of 0.7 percent. The prior report was 0.8 percent.
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ
    The Core PCE Quarter over Quarter report for Q2 came exactly in line with expectations with 0.8 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.8 percent. 

    August 30
    8:30 am Personal Income
    The Personal Income report for July was 0.1 percent. The expected number was 0.2 percent. The prior reported number 0.3 percent. 
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    The Personal Spending report for July came in with 0.1 percent gain. The street was expected a 0.3 percent gin. The revised prior reported number was 0.6 percent gain.
    8:30 am PCE Price Deflator MoM
    The PCE Price Deflator Month over Month report for July was 0.1 percent. The expected number was 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.4 percent.
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    The PCE Deflator year over Year for July was 1.4 percent. That was exactly in line with the expected number. The prior reported number was 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am PCE Core MoM
    The PCE Core Month over Month report for July was up 0.1 percent. That was basically in line with the expected number of 0.2 percent. The prior reported number was 0.2 percent.
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    The PCE Core Year over Year report for July was in line with expectations with a gain of 1.2 percent. The street was expecting a gain of 1.3 percent. The prior reported number was 1.2 percent. 
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    The ISM Milwaukee report for August was lower than expected with 48.21. The street was expecting 53.00. The prior reported number was 52.43.
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    The Chicago Purchasing Manager report for August was exactly in line with expectations with 53. The prior reported number was 52.3.
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence
    The University of Michigan Confidence report for August was better than expected with 82.1. The street was looking for 80.5. The prior reported number was 80.0.




  • Warren Sulmasy Market Rebound Continues

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    DOW 14,840.95 +16.44 points +0.11%
    S&P 1,638.17  +3.21 points +0.20%
    NASDAQ 3,620.30 +26.95 points +0.75%

    The Markets rebound rally continued for a second day. The DOW rallied up +16.44 points or up +0.11 percent to close at 14,840.95 for the day. The S&P 500 index gained +3.21 points or up +0.20 percent to close up at 1,638.17 for the day.  The NASDAQ index rallied +26.95 points or up 0.75 percent to close up at 3,620.30 for the day.

    The market opened slightly higher and rallied into midday, where it slowly gave back some of the days gains and closed in positive territory. 
    On the economic calendar, the weekly jobless reports were all in line with expectations. The GDP report was slightly stronger than expected and gave the market a boost. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week
    are listed below.

    August 26
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders report for July was worse than expected dropping -7.3 percent. The expected number was -4.0 percent. The July report was also a big drop from the revised prior reported number of 3.9 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for July was disappointing down -0.6 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air report for July came below expectations down -3.3 percent. The expected number was up 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for July came in below expectations down – 1.5 percent. The expected number was up 0.3 percent. The July report was lower than the revised prior reported number of -0.8 percent.
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for August was positive with 5.0. The Expected number was 4.0. The August report was essentially unchanged form the prior reported number of 4.4.

    August 27
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CSS City Month over Month SA report for June was basically in line with expectations with 0.89 percent. The expected number was 1.00 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.04 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for June was in line with expectations with 12.07 percent. The expected number was 12.10 percent. The prior reported number was 12.20 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for June came in line with the streets expectations with 159.54. The expected number 159.30. The revised prior reported number was 156.18. 
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Year over Year report Q2 was 10.08 percent. The revised prior reported number was 10.10 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Q2 for Q2 was 146.32. The revised prior reported number was 136.59.
    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for August was 14. The prior reported number was -11.
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for August was 81.5. The expected number was 79.0. The revised prior reported number was 81.

    August 28
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for August 23 was down -2.5 percent. The prior reported number was down -4.6 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for July was down -1.3 percent. The street was looking for a flat report. The prior reported number was off -0.4 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for July came up 7.9 percent. That was less than the streets expected number of up 8.6 percent. The July report was lower than the prior reported number of 9.1 percent.

    August 29
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    The Initial Joobless Claims report for August 24 was in line with expectations with 331,000. The expected number was 332,000. The revised prior reported number was 337,000. 
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    The Continuing Claims report for August 17 was almost exactly in line with expectations with 2,989,000. The expected number was 2,988,000. The revised prior reported number was 3,003,000. 
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    The GDP Annualized Quarter over Quarter report for Q2 was a bit better than expected with 2.5 percent. The expected number was 2.2 percent. The prior reported number was 1.7 percent. 
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    The Personal Consumption report for Q2 was in line with expectations with 1.8 percent. The expected number was 1.7 percent. The prior reported number was 1.8 percent. 
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    The GDP Price Index for Q2 for Q2 was 0.8 percent. That was in line with the expected number of 0.7 percent. The prior report was 0.8 percent.
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ
    The Core PCE Quarter over Quarter report for Q2 came exactly in line with expectations with 0.8 percent. The prior reported number was also 0.8 percent. 

    August 30
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Price Deflator
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core Mom
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY

  • Warren Sulmasy Wall Street Rebounds


    DOW 14,824.51 +48.38 points +0.33%
    S&P 1,634.96  +4.48 points +0.27%
    NASDAQ 3,593.51 +14.83 points +0.41%

    The Market was overdue for a rebound rally. The DOW rallied up +48.38 points or up +0.33 percent to close at 14,824.51 for the day. The S&P 500 index gained +4.48 points or up +0.27 percent to close up at 1,634.96 for the day.  The NASDAQ index rallied +14.83 points or up 0.41 percent to close up at 3,593.51 for the day.

    The market opened flat and then slowly rallied throughout the day to close positive even as the concern over Syria still looms over the market. 
    On the economic calendar,  the weekly MBA Mortgage applications were down, while the pending home sales data was mixed, with short term looking a bit lower and the longer term outlook improving. 

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week
    are listed below.

    August 26
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders report for July was worse than expected dropping -7.3 percent. The expected number was -4.0 percent. The July report was also a big drop from the revised prior reported number of 3.9 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for July was disappointing down -0.6 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air report for July came below expectations down -3.3 percent. The expected number was up 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for July came in below expectations down – 1.5 percent. The expected number was up 0.3 percent. The July report was lower than the revised prior reported number of -0.8 percent.
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for August was positive with 5.0. The Expected number was 4.0. The August report was essentially unchanged form the prior reported number of 4.4.

    August 27
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CSS City Month over Month SA report for June was basically in line with expectations with 0.89 percent. The expected number was 1.00 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.04 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for June was in line with expectations with 12.07 percent. The expected number was 12.10 percent. The prior reported number was 12.20 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for June came in line with the streets expectations with 159.54. The expected number 159.30. The revised prior reported number was 156.18. 
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Year over Year report Q2 was 10.08 percent. The revised prior reported number was 10.10 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Q2 for Q2 was 146.32. The revised prior reported number was 136.59.
    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for August was 14. The prior reported number was -11.
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for August was 81.5. The expected number was 79.0. The revised prior reported number was 81.

    August 28
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for August 23 was down -2.5 percent. The prior reported number was down -4.6 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for July was down -1.3 percent. The street was looking for a flat report. The prior reported number was off -0.4 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for July came up 7.9 percent. That was less than the streets expected number of up 8.6 percent. The July report was lower than the prior reported number of 9.1 percent.

    August 29
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ

    August 30
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Deflator MoM
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core Mom
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence

    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY

    August 29
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ

    August 30
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Deflator MoM
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core Mom
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence

    August 26
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders

    The Durable Goods Orders report for July was worse than expected dropping -7.3 percent. The expected number was -4.0 percent. The July report was also a big drop from the revised prior reported number of 3.9 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for July was disappointing down -0.6 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air report for July came below expectations down -3.3 percent. The expected number was up 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for July came in below expectations down – 1.5 percent. The expected number was up 0.3 percent. The July report was lower than the revised prior reported number of -0.8 percent.
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for August was positive with 5.0. The Expected number was 4.0. The August report was essentially unchanged form the prior reported number of 4.4.

    August 27
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA

    The S&P/CSS City Month over Month SA report for June was basically in line with expectations with 0.89 percent. The expected number was 1.00 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.04 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for June was in line with expectations with 12.07 percent. The expected number was 12.10 percent. The prior reported number was 12.20 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for June came in line with the streets expectations with 159.54. The expected number 159.30. The revised prior reported number was 156.18. 
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Year over Year report Q2 was 10.08 percent. The revised prior reported number was 10.10 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Q2 for Q2 was 146.32. The revised prior reported number was 136.59.

    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for August was 14. The prior reported number was -11.
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for August was 81.5. The expected number was 79.0. The revised prior reported number was 81.

    August 28
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications 
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM

  • Warren Sulmasy Market Is Rocked By Syria Concerns

    DOW 14,776.13 -170.33 points -1.14%
    S&P 1,630.48  -26.30 points -1.59%
    NASDAQ 3,578.52 -79.05 points -2.16%


    The Market was rocked today by Syria concerns. The DOW was down -170.33 or down -1.14 percent to close down at 14,776.13. The S&P 500 index fell -26.30 points or down -1.59 percent to close down at 1,630.48.  The NASDAQ index dropped -79.05 points or down -2.16 percent for the day.
    The market opened lower and continued to trade lower throughout the day into the close. The concern over a possible U.S. led military strike against Syrian President Assad’s forces dominated the trading atmosphere. It was the markets worse down day since June. 
    On the economic calendar,  the housing data released today was all basically in line with thee streets expectations.

    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week
    are listed below.

    August 26
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders

    The Durable Goods Orders report for July was worse than expected dropping -7.3 percent. The expected number was -4.0 percent. The July report was also a big drop from the revised prior reported number of 3.9 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
    The Durables Ex Transportation report for July was disappointing down -0.6 percent. The expected number was 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 0.1 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air report for July came below expectations down -3.3 percent. The expected number was up 0.5 percent. The July report was also a drop from the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air report for July came in below expectations down – 1.5 percent. The expected number was up 0.3 percent. The July report was lower than the revised prior reported number of -0.8 percent.
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manf Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manf Activity report for August was positive with 5.0. The Expected number was 4.0. The August report was essentially unchanged form the prior reported number of 4.4.

    August 27
    9:00 am S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA
    The S&P/CSS City Month over Month SA report for June was basically in line with expectations with 0.89 percent. The expected number was 1.00 percent. The revised prior reported number was 1.04 percent. 
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite-20 Year over Year report for June was in line with expectations with 12.07 percent. The expected number was 12.10 percent. The prior reported number was 12.20 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report for June came in line with the streets expectations with 159.54. The expected number 159.30. The revised prior reported number was 156.18. 
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Year over Year report Q2 was 10.08 percent. The revised prior reported number was 10.10 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA
    The S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Q2 for Q2 was 146.32. The revised prior reported number was 136.59.

    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for August was 14. The prior reported number was -11.
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for August was 81.5. The expected number was 79.0. The revised prior reported number was 81.

    August 28
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY

    August 29
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ

    August 30
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Deflator MoM
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core Mom
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence