Archive for July, 2013

  • Warren Sulmasy Market Continues to Consolidate up Near All Time Highs

    DOW 15,520.59 -1.38 points or  -0.01%
    S&P 1,685.96 +0.63 points or  +0.04%
    NASDAQ 3,616.47 +17.33 points or +0.48%
     
     The market opened higher, sold off into negative territory, and closed basically unchanged for the day. The DOW was basically unchanged losing -1.38 points or down -0.01 percent to close at 15,520.59. The S&P 500 also opened higher. sold off into negative territory, and closed basically unchanged for the day up +0.63 point or up +0.04 percent to close at 1,685.95. The NASDAQ index actually moved up almost a half percent(+0.48 percent) today up +17.33 points to close up at a 12 year index high of 3,616.47. 
    The massive load of economic numbers keeps rolling this week. Today home price indicators reported slightly lower home prices. Tomorrows action will be dominated by the release of the ADP Employment change report as well as the FOMC rate decision release.  Hopefully all the economic releases will bring some action back into the market. Should be a fun trading week.
     The market remains in a tight trading range up near the all time highs. This weeks economic reports should spring us out of the range. 
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.
    July 29
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for June was -0.4 percent. That was slightly better than the expected number -1.0 percent, yet much lower than the prior revised report of 5.8 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for June was 9.1 percent. That was better than the expected number of 8.3 percent, yet below the prior revised reported number of 11.2 percent. 
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report for July was 4.4. That was less than the expected number of 7.5 and lower than the prior reported number of 6.5.
    July 30
    9:00 am S&P/CS City MoM SA
    The S&P/CS Month over Month SA for May came in lower than expected with 1.05 percent. The expected number was 1.4 percent. The May report was also lower the the revised prior reported number of 1.73 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    The S&P/CS Composite -20 Year over Year report for May came in near the expected number with 12.17 percent. The expected number was 12.40 percent. The May report was also basically in line with the revised prior reported number of 12.09 percent.
    9:00 am S&P/CaseShiller Home Price
    The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price report for May came in with 156.14. That was higher than the prior revised reported number of 152.42. 
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index
    The Consumer Confidence Index report for July came in lower than expected with 80.3. The expected number was 81.3. The July report was also lower than the prior revised number of 82.1
    July 31
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:15 am ADP Employment Change
    8:30 am Employment Cost
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    2:00 pm FOMC Rate Decision

    8/1
    7:30 am Challenger Job Cuts YoY
    7:30 am RBC Consumer Outlook Index
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Final
    10:00 am Construction Spending MoM
    10:00 am ISM Manufacturing
    10:00 am ISM Prices Paid
    5:00 pm Total Vehicle Sales
    5:00 pm Domestic Vehicle Sales

    8/2
    8:30 am Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
    8:30 am Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions
    8:30 am Change in Private Payrolls
    8:30 am Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
    8:30 am Unemployment Rate
    8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings MoM
    8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings YoY
    8:30 am Average Weekly Hours All Employees
    8:30 am Change in Household Employment
    8:30 am Underemployment Rate
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Deflator MoM
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core MoM
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:45 am ISM New York’
    10:00 am Factory Orders
    10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
  • Warren Sulmasy Market Slips Before Fed Policy Meeting




    DOW 15,521.97 -36.86 points or  -0.24%
    S&P 1,685.33 -6.32 points or  -0.37%
    NASDAQ 3,599.14 -14.03 points or -0.39%
     
     The market sold off in the morning, erased some of the losses for the remainder of the day, and unlike the past two trading sessions, the market actually closed down for the day. The DOW slipped -36.86 or down -0.24 percent to close down at 15,521.97. The S&P 500 equity index lost -6.32 points or down -0.37 percent to close down at 1,685.33 for the day. The NASDAQ index gave back -14.03 points or -0.39 percent to close down at 3,599.14 for the day. 
    This week is loaded with economic releases. Today’s release was Pending Home Sales. The reports did show the sales were down from the prior month as expected after the boost in interest rates in June. Yet the the decline was not as significant as expected. On a year over year comparison, the Pending Home Sales actually increased. Among the most important releases for the week will be Wednesday when the FOMC rate decision report is released. Hopefully all the economic releases will bring some action back into the market. Should be a fun trading week.
     
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports for the week are listed below.
    July 29
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales MoM
    The Pending Home Sales Month over Month report for June was -0.4 percent. That was slightly better than the expected number -1.0 percent, yet much lower than the prior revised report of 5.8 percent.
    10:00 am Pending Home Sales YoY
    The Pending Home Sales Year over Year report for June was 9.1 percent. That was better than the expected number of 8.3 percent, yet below the prior revised reported number of 11.2 percent. 
    10:30 am Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
    The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report for July was 4.4. That was less than the expected number of 7.5 and lower than the prior reported number of 6.5.
    July 30
    9:00 am S&P/CS City MoM SA
    9:00 am S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY
    9:00 am S&P/CaseShiller Home Price
    10:00 am Consumer Confidence Index

    July 31
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    8:15 am ADP Employment Change
    8:30 am Employment Cost
    8:30 am GDP Annualized QoQ
    8:30 am Personal Consumption
    8:30 am GDP Price Index
    8:30 am Core PCE QoQ
    9:00 am ISM Milwaukee
    9:45 am Chicago Purchasing Manager
    2:00 pm FOMC Rate Decision

    8/1
    7:30 am Challenger Job Cuts YoY
    7:30 am RBC Consumer Outlook Index
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Final
    10:00 am Construction Spending MoM
    10:00 am ISM Manufacturing
    10:00 am ISM Prices Paid
    5:00 pm Total Vehicle Sales
    5:00 pm Domestic Vehicle Sales

    8/2
    8:30 am Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
    8:30 am Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions
    8:30 am Change in Private Payrolls
    8:30 am Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
    8:30 am Unemployment Rate
    8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings MoM
    8:30 am Average Hourly Earnings YoY
    8:30 am Average Weekly Hours All Employees
    8:30 am Change in Household Employment
    8:30 am Underemployment Rate
    8:30 am Personal Income
    8:30 am Personal Spending
    8:30 am PCE Deflator MoM
    8:30 am PCE Deflator YoY
    8:30 am PCE Core MoM
    8:30 am PCE Core YoY
    9:45 am ISM New York’
    10:00 am Factory Orders
    10:00 am ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
  • Warren Sulmasy The Bears Cannot Keep the Market Down

     
     
    DOW 15,558.83 +3.22 points or  +0.02%
    S&P 1,691.65 +1.40 points or  +0.08%
    NASDAQ 3,613.16 +7.98 points or +0.22%
     
      Today’s market action mirrored yesterdays action. The market opened lower again, and for the remainder of the day, slowly erased the morning losses to close positive on the day. The DOW moved up +3.22 points or up +0.02 percent to close up at 15,558.83 for the day. The S&P 500 equity index gained +1.40 points or up +0.08% percent to close up at 1691.65. The NASDAQ index again, put up the best performance of the three major equity indexes moving up 7.98 points or up +0.22 percent to close up at 3,613.16 for the day.
     The Bears must be pulling their hair or fur our. Even with the market up near all time highs, all attempts by the Bears to bring the market down are met with strong Bulls buying it right back up as evidenced by both yesterdays and today’s market action. The strength of the market is amazing.  There was only  economic report released today. The University of Michigan Confidence report was strong, again, supporting the notion that the economy is slowly recovering.
    Enjoy the weekend.
     
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports are listed below.
     
    July 22
    8:30 am Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
     The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index report for June came in slightly below expectations with -0.13. The expected number was flat. The June report was better than the prior revised number of -0.29.
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales
    The Existing Home Sales report for June dipped a touch to 5.08M. This was below the expected number of 5.26M  and the revised prior reported number was 5.14M.
     10:00am Existing Home Sales MoM
    The Existing Home Sales Month over Month for June came in below expectations dropping -1.2 percent. The expected number was 1.5 percent. The June report was a significant drop from the revised prior report of 3.4 percent.
     
    July 23
    9:00 am House Price Index MoM
    The House Price Index Month over Month for May came basically in line with expectations with 0.7 percent. The street was expecting 0.8 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.5 percent.
    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for July came in far below expectations with -11. The street was looking for 9. The revised prior reported number was 7.
     
    July 24
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for July 19 came in -1.2 percent. While the report was negative, it was better than the prior reported number of -2.6 percent.
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Preliminary
    The Markit US PMI Preliminary report for July was slightly better than expected with 53.2. The expected number was 52.6. The July report was also better than the prior reported number of 51.9.
    10:00 am New Home Sales
    The New Home Sales report for June came in better than expected with 497,000. The expected number was 484,000. The June report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 459,000.
    10:00 am New Home Sales MoM
    The New Home Sales Month over Month report for June came in much better than expected with 8.3 percent. The expected number was 1.7 percent. The June report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
     
    July 25
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    The Initial Jobless Claims report for July 20 came basically in line with expectations with 343,000. The expected number was 340,000. The prior revised reported number was 336,000.
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    The Continuing Claims report for July 13 came in better than expectations with 2,997,000. The street was expecting 3,025,000. The July 13 report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 3,116.000.
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders for June came in far above expectations with 4.2 percent. The street was looking for 1.4 percent. The June report was actually lower than the revised prior reported number of 5.2 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
     The Durables Ex Transportation report for June came in flat. That was basically in line with the expected number, 0.5 percent. The revised prior number was 1.0 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondefense Ex Air report for June came in basically in line with expectations with 0.7 percent. The expected number was 0.6 percent. The June report was down from the revised prior reported number of 2.2 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondefense Ex Air for June came in below expectations with -0.9 percent. The street was expecting 1.1 percent increase. The June report was also worse than the prior revised reported number of 1.9 percent.
    11:00 am Kansas City Fed Manf Activity
    The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity report for July came in above expectations with 6. The expected number was flat. The July report was much better than the prior reported number of -5.
     
    July 26
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence
     The University of Michigan Confidence report for July was 85.1. That was better than the expected number of 84.1. The July report also topped the prior months reported number of 83.9.
     
  • Warren Sulmasy Market Rebounds to Close Higher

     
     
    DOW 15,555.61 +13.37 points or  +0.09%
    S&P 1,690.25 +4.31points or  +0.26%
    NASDAQ 3,605.19 +25.59 points or +0.71%
     
      The market opened lower, and basically spent the remainder of the day erasing the morning losses to close positive for the day. The DOW moved up a meager +13.31 points or up +0.09 percent to close up at 15,555.61 for the day. The S&P 500 equity index gained points or+4.31 or up +0.26 percent to close up at 1690.25. The NASDAQ index enjoyed the best day on the heals of Facebook’s rise today to jump +25.59 or up +0.71 percent to close at 3605.19 for the day. 
     The economic reports released today supported the notion that the economy is slowly recovering. The Jobless Claims number were basically in line and the Durable Goods orders reports were better than expected. Although we saw a slight pull back in the market earlier this week, the market appears to set to continue its march higher.  
     
    All released and proposed to be released economic reports are listed below.
     
    July 22
    8:30 am Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
     The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index report for June came in slightly below expectations with -0.13. The expected number was flat. The June report was better than the prior revised number of -0.29.
    10:00 am Existing Home Sales
    The Existing Home Sales report for June dipped a touch to 5.08M. This was below the expected number of 5.26M  and the revised prior reported number was 5.14M.
     10:00am Existing Home Sales MoM
    The Existing Home Sales Month over Month for June came in below expectations dropping -1.2 percent. The expected number was 1.5 percent. The June report was a significant drop from the revised prior report of 3.4 percent.
     
    July 23
    9:00 am House Price Index MoM
    The House Price Index Month over Month for May came basically in line with expectations with 0.7 percent. The street was expecting 0.8 percent. The revised prior reported number was 0.5 percent.
    10:00 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index report for July came in far below expectations with -11. The street was looking for 9. The revised prior reported number was 7.
     
    July 24
    7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications
    The MBA Mortgage Applications report for July 19 came in -1.2 percent. While the report was negative, it was better than the prior reported number of -2.6 percent.
    8:58 am Markit US PMI Preliminary
    The Markit US PMI Preliminary report for July was slightly better than expected with 53.2. The expected number was 52.6. The July report was also better than the prior reported number of 51.9.
    10:00 am New Home Sales
    The New Home Sales report for June came in better than expected with 497,000. The expected number was 484,000. The June report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 459,000.
    10:00 am New Home Sales MoM
    The New Home Sales Month over Month report for June came in much better than expected with 8.3 percent. The expected number was 1.7 percent. The June report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 1.3 percent.
     
    July 25
    8:30 am Initial Jobless Claims
    The Initial Jobless Claims report for July 20 came basically in line with expectations with 343,000. The expected number was 340,000. The prior revised reported number was 336,000.
    8:30 am Continuing Claims
    The Continuing Claims report for July 13 came in better than expectations with 2,997,000. The street was expecting 3,025,000. The July 13 report was also much better than the revised prior reported number of 3,116.000.
    8:30 am Durable Goods Orders
    The Durable Goods Orders for June came in far above expectations with 4.2 percent. The street was looking for 1.4 percent. The June report was actually lower than the revised prior reported number of 5.2 percent.
    8:30 am Durables Ex Transportation
     The Durables Ex Transportation report for June came in flat. That was basically in line with the expected number, 0.5 percent. The revised prior number was 1.0 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Orders Nondefense Ex Air report for June came in basically in line with expectations with 0.7 percent. The expected number was 0.6 percent. The June report was down from the revised prior reported number of 2.2 percent.
    8:30 am Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
    The Cap Goods Ship Nondefense Ex Air for June came in below expectations with -0.9 percent. The street was expecting 1.1 percent increase. The June report was also worse than the prior revised reported number of 1.9 percent.
    11:00 am Kansas City Fed Manf Activity
    The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity report for July came in above expectations with 6. The expected number was flat. The July report was much better than the prior reported number of -5.
     
    July 26
    9:55 am University of Michigan Confidence