Archive for January, 2013

  • New Employment Number Could Signify a Recession is Near

    Are we headed for a recession?

    Warren Sulmasy’s Market Comment for Thursday, January 31:

    The Treasury Bond Market rallied slightly today. All eyes will focus on tomorrow’s monthly
    (January) employment number, which is released the first Friday each month at 8:30 am ET.
    The overall consensus places the non-farm payrolls to show employers added 160,000 jobs
    compared with a rise of 155,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to hold
    steady at 7.8 percent.
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  • Dismal 4th Quarter GDP

    U.S. GDP number

    Warren Sulmasy’s Market Comment for Wednesday, January 30:

    Today, the United States 4th Quarter GDP fell unexpectedly to 0.1 percent annual rate. This is a
    sharp contrast to the United States 3rd quarter GDP which was a growth of 3.1 percent annual
    rate. So how significant is this number? The stock market and bond markets basically shrugged
    this number off and were both relatively unchanged from yesterday’s market levels.
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  • Federal Reserve Maintains Current Stimulus Policies

    U.S. current stimulus policies

    Warren Sulmasy’s Summary of Federal Reserve Statement for Wednesday, January 30:

    Today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was released. Some had
    believed that the Federal Reserve would slowly begin to retreat from its current stimulus policies
    Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist, but that did not happen. Instead, the Federal Reserve
    (Fed) basically stated they were going to continue with the current stimulus policies. Treasury
    Interest rates again moved a bit higher in the morning, they then rallied a bit after the FOMC
    statement and settled back to a near unchanged level from yesterday.
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  • U.S. Treasury Bond Prices

    Warren Sulmasy’s Market Comment for Monday, January 29:

    U.S. Treasury Market:
    ● 5 year yield .895
    ● 10 year yield 1.99
    ● 30 year yield 3.18

    The U.S. Treasury bond prices were lower again today. The Federal reserve will speak tomorrow. There is speculation that the Federal reserve will slow down some of the stimulus measures instituted over the last couple of years such as QE (quantitative easing) and operation twist (FED buys government and mortgage debt). As a result of this speculation, todays $35 U.S. 5 year Treasury note auction yield was the highest since March 2012. It is worth noting that the 10 year Treasury bond yield was just shy of yesterdays 2 percent yield. That was the 10 years Treasuries highest yield since April 18, 2012.
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